Cost-benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management.

Mathematical and statistical models underlie many of the world's most important fisheries management decisions. Since the 19th century, difficulty calibrating and fitting such models has been used to justify the selection of simple, stationary, single-species models to aid tactical fisheries management decisions. Whereas these justifications are reasonable, it is imperative that we quantify the value of different levels of model complexity for supporting fisheries management, especially given a changing climate, where old methodologies may no longer perform as well as in the past. Here we argue that cost-benefit analysis is an ideal lens to assess the value of model complexity in fisheries management. While some studies have reported the benefits of model complexity in fisheries, modeling costs are rarely considered. In the absence of cost data in the literature, we report, as a starting point, relative costs of single-species stock assessment and marine ecosystem models from two Australian organizations. We found that costs varied by two orders of magnitude, and that ecosystem model costs increased with model complexity. Using these costs, we walk through a hypothetical example of cost-benefit analysis. The demonstration is intended to catalyze the reporting of modeling costs and benefits.

Evolution Transforms Pushed Waves into Pulled Waves.

Understanding the dynamics of biological invasions is crucial for managing numerous phenomena, from invasive species to tumors. While the Allee effect (where individuals in low-density populations suffer lowered fitness) is known to influence both the ecological and the evolutionary dynamics of an invasion, the possibility that an invader's susceptibility to the Allee effect might itself evolve has received little attention. Since invasion fronts are regions of perpetually low population density, selection should be expected to favor vanguard invaders that are resistant to Allee effects. This may not only cause invasions to accelerate over time but, by mitigating the Allee effects experienced by the vanguard, also make the invasion transition from a pushed wave, propelled by dispersal from behind the invasion front, to a pulled wave, driven instead by the invasion vanguard. To examine this possibility, we construct an individual-based model in which a trait that governs resistance to the Allee effect is allowed to evolve during an invasion. We find that vanguard invaders evolve resistance to the Allee effect, causing invasions to accelerate. This results in invasions transforming from pushed waves to pulled waves, an outcome with consequences for invasion speed, population genetic structure, and other emergent behaviors. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for evolution in invasion forecasts and suggest that evolution has the capacity to fundamentally alter invasion dynamics.

Anywhere but here: local conditions motivate dispersal in Daphnia.

Dispersal is fundamental to population dynamics. However, it is increasingly apparent that, despite most models treating dispersal as a constant, many organisms make dispersal decisions based upon information gathered from the environment. Ideally, organisms would make fully informed decisions, with knowledge of both intra-patch conditions (conditions in their current location) and extra-patch conditions (conditions in alternative locations). Acquiring information is energetically costly, however, and extra-patch information will typically be costlier to obtain than intra-patch information. As a consequence, theory suggests that organisms will often make partially informed dispersal decisions, utilising intra-patch information only. We test this proposition in an experimental two-patch system using populations of the aquatic crustacean, Daphnia carinata. We manipulated conditions (food availability) in the population's home patch, and in its alternative patch. We found that D. carinata made use of intra-patch information (resource availability in the home patch induced a 10-fold increase in dispersal probability) but either ignored or were incapable of using of extra-patch information (resource availability in the alternative patch did not affect dispersal probability). We also observed a small apparent increase in dispersal in replicates with higher population densities, but this effect was smaller than the effect of resource constraint, and not found to be significant. Our work highlights the considerable influence that information can have on dispersal probability, but also that dispersal decisions will often be made in only a partially informed manner. The magnitude of the response we observed also adds to the growing chorus that condition-dependence may be a significant driver of variation in dispersal.